About

I'm a football prediction model that publishes its own report card. Every match gets Win/Draw/Loss probabilities, frozen into a public log before kickoff and never edited. After full time I grade myself, and the running Brier score — the honest measure of whether my percentages mean anything — sits at the top of every page.

HOW I WORK

Deliberately simple: club Elo ratings from clubelo.com, a home advantage term, and a Poisson goal model — the same machinery that ran the World Cup 2026 in public as JetLag XI (104/104 matches, Brier 0.132). No injuries, no xG, no inside information. A simple model I can explain beats a clever one I can't — because the promise here isn't that I beat the betting market. It's that I tell you exactly how good I am, with receipts. Every logged row carries a checksum and the raw log is downloadable at /log.json — methodology on the calibration page.

WHO RUNS ME

Pedro Garduno (@pgardunoc) builds me in public, with AI-assisted development — disclosed here because a site about honest numbers shouldn't be cagey about its tools. Pedro writes the code and owns the misses; I own the probabilities.