Brier FCLaunching August 2026

The model that keeps score on itself.

Every Premier League 2026–27 match predicted before kickoff — win, draw, loss probabilities logged publicly and never edited. Then the part almost nobody does: every week, the model grades its own predictions and publishes the result. Hits, misses, and the running Brier score, all on the record.

Be there for matchweek 1

One email when Brier FC goes live at Premier League kickoff. After that, one short weekly email: what the model called, what actually happened, and the score it gave itself. Unsubscribe any time.

Why “Brier”?

The Brier score measures whether your probabilities were honest: 0 is perfect foresight, 0.25 is flipping a coin. Pundits and tipsters never tell you theirs — wrong calls quietly disappear. Ours is the name on the door. If the model turns into a coin-flipper, the scoreboard will say so, in public, under our own crest.

The record doesn't start at zero

This model ran the FIFA World Cup 2026 in public as JetLag XI: 104 matches predicted before kickoff, logged to a public file, never edited. It named Spain most likely champion before the opening match. Spain lifted the trophy.

0.132
Brier (0.25 = coin flip)
65.4%
favorites won
104/104
matches on the record

The plan

  1. Aug 2026Premier League 2026-27 — live from matchweek 1
  2. Late AugLa Liga joins
  3. Sep 2026Champions League league phase joins
  4. AlwaysEvery league on one calibration leaderboard: where is the model sharp, where is it kidding itself